A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
